The blog is closing

Dear readers,

Over the past months I have learned a lot about market volume analysis, and after some bad decisions the blog trading actually went ok I think. Sadly I must admit that I have not been able to follow the trading setup – I have been too aggressive and overleveraged, while trading both the stock market, metals and forex. What has passed is that I have made insane amounts on forex and at the same time it has exploded the account finally. 2 years of work and I ended up wasting the initial deposit almost completely.

That´s ok, it was an amount that was at risk with full awareness that it was lost on entry.

However, my behaviour during the last 6 months or so has been drawn too much to the computer and market status than to all the other things I like to do as well – my family, the job and my RC car, plus a few hours just relaxing without any specific agenda. The problem was not the blog, the problem was monitoring the market in realtime – almost all the time. Today I am happy that I made this decision, I can already feel the relief to be honest.

Therefore I have decided to take my loss, and shut down these kind of trading strategies, to reduce time consumption, while most likely being more succesful on the longer term with the savings. While I will also be able to have the focus that I want to have on the nearer things in my personal life.

I wish everyone good luck on your future paths in life.

I will especially mention, and send a big Hi and good luck to: Saladenator who helped me start this blog after I followed his introduction to market volume analysis, John B for his thorough input on both setting things up and how he thought the market would behave and Vali for his complete honestness and kind behaviour at all times.

Finally I will say this; I don’t think I am a beaten man, I’m already a much happier man

Steffan

EOD 2011.05.10

The 2 day chart is still showing flat buying volume, the MVO signal disappeared and both momentum and sentiment looks better to me now. If a buying signal appeared on the daily timeframe it wouldn’t be the 2 day chart that worried me for now.

The 1 day chart improved a bit during the last session, selling volume went flat and the histogram produced a shorter red bar. Most significant improvement for now is that we have positive momentum and sentiment went above 50 by a few points. This could indicate that the current cycle is about to finish.

The bull cycle continues on the 60 minute chart, what is interesting is that MVO started giving a positive reading during the last hour, while sentiment is at overbought levels. I think that we may have a push up in the next session and we may see a bear cycle start after that. However, that is my best guess.

EOD 2011.05.09

The 2 day chart shows a slight rise in buying volume, however I do not think the 2 day chart looks too safe at the moment. We have a slightly negative reading on the MVO indicator, momentum is slightly positive and the sentiment is still trending downwards and is not at 53 a few points above the warning level. So for now the 2 day chart could indicate both directions.

Th 1 day chart continues its bear cycle, selling volume continues to rise and we have red bars on the histogram. The only discrepancy on the chart for now is the slower oscillator, it’s still green while the faster below the histogram is about to move below the lower signal line. The MVO indicator is still slightly negative, and momentum as back at neutral, and sentiment remains below the warning level at 50.

On the 60 minute chart we had no clear shift to a bear cycle as I anticipated in the former EOD post. Actually buying volume started reappearing over the last few hours. I still belive we will see a bear cycle developing shortly, and with a bear cycle on the daily chart it should result on some draw down in prices.

EOD 2011.05.06

The trades performed page has been updated today.

The 2 day chart kept flat buying volume which is bearish as it could indicate a turn to a bear cycle. Momentum points downwards while sentiment hovers 5 points above the 50 level.

On the daily timeframe we are in a clear bear cycle on the histogram and selling volume continues to rise. MVO is giving a negative reading which is bearish going forward. Momentum is at neutral which could be positive however sentiment is below neutral and combined with the selling volume and MVO I think it will fail to lift further.

I think the bull cycle on the 60 minute timeframe is about to end, check the histogram and sentiment indicator on the chart.

EOD 2011.05.05

The 2 day chart got worse with the latest data, buying volume went flat, which means that the immediate accumulation of buying volume went to zero and selling volume remains flat zero. The positive MVO reading went back to neutral and momentum is also back to neutral. Sentiment is trending downwards and is now 4 points above the warning level at 50. The 2 day chart could still be signalling that we are only passing a smaller bump on the road, however, I do not like momentum at neutral at this point.

The 1 day chart is in a bear cycle, the histogram is making read bars after the bear cross, and selling volume continues to rise while buying volume is dropping. Notice that selling and buying volume should cross during the following session. MVO is giving a negative reading, and the same goes for momentum. Sentiment trends downwards and is now at 42 well below the neutral level. Based on the 2 day and 1 day chart I would say that we have more downside to come. When I look at the fake out chart configuration I find confirmation of a bearish setup on all indicators.

The 60 minute chart is making blue bars on the histogram and is in a bear cycle, selling volume did, however, start to appear again late in the session, and we might have a bear cycle during the following session. Although, if you look at sentiment it possible that we need a bit more time to reset the indicators before further drop in prices is coming.

Good luck on your trading and I hope you all will have a nice weekend.

Steffan

EOD 2011.05.04

The 2 day chart still looks ok even though the 1 day chart started worsening, the selling volume went back to zero while buying volume continues to rise. MVO remains positive, but, and I will monitor that, sentiment is moving down and is now only a few points above the neutral level.

The 1 day chart got a bear cross on the histogram, and the sbv oscillator is sitting right at the signal line which is a warning signal aswell (move below is a sell signal), selling volume started to elevate from zero and MVO switched to a negative reading. Momentum is neutral and sentiment is below 50 which indicates upcoming further weakness.

On the 60 minute chart it appears that the current bear cycle is over, the histogram is very close to making a bull cross while selling volume is dropping. Sentiment is below the lower signal line and could start to move up from here. The effectiveness of the coming bear cycle could be indicative of what is happening in the markets over the next days or weeks.

BR, Steffan

Trade close 2011.05.04

Im closing the last two positions as we have elevated selling volume on the intraday daily chart, it could be premature but sentiment is also below 50 so we have some warning signals now.

@ 1340

EOD 2011.05.03

The 2 day chart still looks bullish, the only thing that worries me is the dip in sentiment, we really want that to stay above the 50 level.

The 1 day chart took some worsening during the last session, and what got me on my toes was the following: The histogram does not seem as strong as in the previous bull runs (yes I know, we still don’t have a bull cross), a negative reading on the fake out MVO. However, I did not have a positive reading on the 1 day MVO intraday yesterday, and that would probably have calmed me a bit down. What we should monitor closely is the sentiment, we want that to stay above the 50 level going forward.

The 60 minute chart showed selling during the bear cycle, and even though we have indications on the histogram and a drop in the selling volume that the cycle is about over, I’m a bit worried over momentum in negative and sentiment not yet at oversold levels, maybe it can continue for a few more trading hours?

Trade close 2011.05.03

Today we have a drop in buying volume on the daily chart, and the histogram could already tomorrow produce a bear cross. The 1 day chart with fake out configuration is starting to give a bearish MVO signal.

In combination the Russell 2000 index (intraday) on the daily scale shows elevating selling volume (it can lead, but it is more thin volume so it can be false aswell).

I’m closing the third unit opened at 1344.

Close @ 1347,50

Trades performed will be updated within the next 10 minutes.

EOD 2011.05.02

The 2 day chart continue its bullish improvement. The histogram made a bull cross, the buying volume continues to rise and the positive MVO reading is sustained. The momentum and sentiment indicators remain in positive territory.

The 1 day chart still looks ok, the buying volume has gone flat and once it starts to drop it should bring a bit of worry. MVO started to give a positive reading, while momentum and sentiment are cooling of a bit, they are still in positive territory and we should manage to stay this way for a day or two more with cooling, unless it picks up in speed. However I don’t find that scenario likely for now.

A bear cycle got going on the 60 minute timeframe, and it is not the selling volume that worries me, it’s the large MVO reading pointing downwards, it could be a warning sign of a few rough days. However, with bullish MVO readings on the daily and 2 day timeframe they could mitigate the lower timeframe action.